Betting on the NFL Draft

Betting on the NFL Draft

doc’s sports | Robert Ferringo ( Wed 23rd, April 2008 )

In my initial mock draft projections I had the Miami Dolphins selecting former Virginia defensive end Chris Long

Looks like we backed the wrong Long.

In my initial mock draft projections I had the Miami Dolphins selecting former Virginia defensive end Chris Long with the No. 1 overall selection. However, on Monday the Dolphins announced that they had reached a five-year, $58 million agreement with former Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long as the top pick of the 2008 NFL Draft. In my mocks, I did preface my selections by saying that either Long made perfect sense for a team trying to rebuild. And I think this is a very solid selection for the Dolphins, who really needed to rebuild their house from the ground up.

Miami did manage to take a little bit of the fun out of this weekend’s event, from a betting perspective, by taking one of the most popular 2008 NFL Draft prop bets off the board at the online books that take wagers on the draft. “Who will be the No. 1 overall selection” is usually one of the marquee betting situations for NFL betting junkies, but even with that question answered there are still several potentially lucrative prop bets on the board.

Our good friends over at Bodog currently have 30 NFL Draft prop bets available on their board. So, being the gambling addict that I am, I have decided to toss out a few wild and baseless predictions for betting on the NFL Draft that I believe to hold the most value. Of course, Bodog has a $100 max bet on any of these props so we can’t go buck wild. But hey, a dollar is a dollar, right?

Here’s what Daddy likes so far:

Who will the St. Louis Rams take with the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft?
My pick: Glenn Dorsey (10/11)

The Smart Money is on Chris Long as the better player, but I think the Rams have more of a need on the interior of their line. The Rams are shelling out solid dollars on James Hall’s contract at one end and have stalwart Leonard Little on the other. With the amount of money that they would have to shell out in this No. 2 slot they can’t reasonably draft a player that won’t start this upcoming season. The Rams have 13-year veteran LaRoi Glover paired with last year’s No. 1, Adam Carriker, on the inside. With a shot to add Dorsey to the mix I think the Rams bite, which would also give them the flex to move Carriker to the outside. Also, I think the odds here are a tip. If Long was more of a “lock” to go No. 2 he wouldn’t have the same odds (he is 10/11 as well) as Dorsey. I really like this play.

Will Malcolm Kelly be drafted in Round 1?
My pick: Yes ( 150)

I don’t think that Kelly should be taken in Round 1, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t. There are simply too many teams picking from 17 to 32 that have wide receiver needs. And that’s not even counting Arizona, which could be looking to deal Anquan Boldin. The Eagles (No. 19), Bucs (No. 20), Redskins (No. 21), Cowboys (No. 22 and No. 28), Steelers (No. 23), Titans (No. 24), Seahawks (No. 25) and 49ers (No. 29) all have legitimate needs at wideout. And even after a subpar workout and subsequent whining afterwards can’t eliminate the supply-and-demand of it. There will be at least four wideouts taken in the first round, and Devin Thomas and DeSean Jackson will be among them. I think Kelly is stride-for-stride with James Hardy and Limas Sweed, and if there are five wideouts that go (which I predict there will be) then Kelly will be taken. I’m looking for him to go to either Washington or Pittsburgh.

In which round will the Atlanta Falcons draft a quarterback?
My pick: Round 2 (5/6)

Who will the Baltimore Ravens take with the No. 8 pick in the NFL Draft
My pick: Matt Ryan (17/10)

I don’t think that the Falcons are going to bite on Ryan. There are practical reasons. Like they just got burned by a “franchise quarterback” and probably aren’t real willing to jump back in that pool. Or because their new head coach came from a team (Jacksonville) that won behind a physical defense and brutish running game. Or because they have such attrition across the defensive line that they were starting practice squad guys at the end of last year. But it’s also a bit subtler than that. Matt Ryan is perceived as a Northerner. And I don’t know if the locals will embrace a B.C. guy. Especially when they could grab Brian Brohm, from nearby Louisville, at the top of Round 2. If the Falcons don’t take Ryan then I doubt that any of the other teams between Atlanta and Kansas City likely will. I think he slides to Baltimore and they finally get a decent arm under center.

Who will the Kansas City Chiefs take with the No. 5 pick in the NFL Draft?
My pick: Matt Ryan (4/1)

I know, I know – this totally contradicts everything I just said. But it really doesn’t. If you place $50 on this wager and $100 on Ryan to the Ravens at No. 8 then I think you’re set to make money (either a $100 profit if he goes to K.C. or a $120 profit if he goes to Baltimore) as long as the Falcons don’t take him. I think that’s a safe bet. The Chiefs can come back and get a quality offensive lineman at No. 17 and a defensive end with their second rounder. They can give Ryan a year to learn behind Brodie Croyle and then slide Ryan in as the QB Of The Future. It makes sense, right? Regardless, banking on him going to either K.C. or Baltimore gives you two of the three teams in the Top 10 that would likely grab him.

Who will have more players drafted in the first round?
My pick: Offensive players ( 1.5, -120)

We already have a 2.5-player lead! Todd McShay has 16 defensive players taken in Round 1, which would be a win for us with our cushion. Mel Kiper Jr. has 15 defensive players taken in Round 1, which would be an outright win. I really don’t think that 17 of the next 30 picks (New England forfeited the No. 31 overall pick) will be defensive players.

Will Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys draft a player from the University of Arkansas?
My pick: Yes (-130)

If you haven’t heard, Jerry Jones is an alum of Arkansas. We also have several different ways to make this wager pay. If the Boys trade up to get Darren McFadden, who Jones is clearly wet for, then we cash. But I think the more likely scenario has Dallas picking up Felix Jones, McFadden’s running mate with the Hogs, with one of its first round selections. I think once Dallas traded Julius Jones to Seattle that opened up a slot for either McFadden or Jones as either a person to spell Marion Barber or to offer a change of pace. And even if they don’t get one of the Arkansas RBs in the first round I could see Jones throwing a bone to some Razorback in the later rounds. Of all the props out there, this may be my favorite.

doc’s sports