4 Main Targets

4 Main Targets

EZSportswinners, www.ezsportswinners.com, looks here at four main targets when analyzing a game:


The trends or statistics

The “spot”

The value

And finally, relevant information
,
and special factors

The “trend” is basically a tendency for one team to do some something with another over time. Trends, however, can be very tricky so you have to really watch out basing your decision solely and entirely on this single factor. Just because a team has hammered another team, over and over, this feat won’t necessarily apply to every situation. For example, let’s say Team A has won 5 straight games over Team B, but Team B now has a new coach involved. A lot of those old trends may just not apply now! Yes, this is an obvious situation, but a handicapper needs to look a bit deeper at these kinds of situations, and this certainly illustrates the point. Obviously, statistics, both current and some past, figure in, and are vital in figuring an outcome.  In addition, trends such as playing surface, history etc. are important as well.

So what’s the “spot”? Well, this is the situation, or the timing of the event, that may factor in to the conclusion, and outcome. A lot of times, this is information not figured in to any software program, and this may be the one factor separating any given handicapper from the next.   Let’s take this example:  a prior week underdog is coming off a monumental upset as a favorite the following week, and they are in one hand, now in a mode known as the classic “let-down”.   On the other hand, perhaps this big win can spring them to new heights, with new-found momentum?  This has to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.  So, let’s use a real life situation such as this one stated, actually played out in the 2007 season of college football.  Colorado,  under Coach Hawkins had a monumental upset of mega power Oklahoma, 27-24, in week 6 of 2007, but were now traveling to Baylor, in which this surely qualified as that classic “let-down” spot for the Buffs.  Baylor came in as 9 point underdogs, playing at home. This situation is definitely a “spot” to wager against Colorado, as the game with Oklahoma easily could’ve “spent” the Buffalo’s.  But when analyzing this game involving Baylor, you have to ask yourself if Coach Hawkins has actually turned a corner with his program, and perhaps the Sooner’s game has sprung the Buff’s to indeed, “new heights”?  But remember, this is only one factor in this game.  You have to weigh these criteria with many, many other factors, the most important being that Baylor is simply no match talent wise with the Buffs!  This tidbit is of course vital, because a soft Buff team, emotionally spent, could still in fact “roll”  over a weaker program, like the Bears had, simply on talent alone, and not a whole lot else!  So, were the Bears the play of the day, or were the stronger Buffs the way to go, to continue their surge?  Well, Baylor certainly had a decent offense, but their defense couldn’t stop a grocery cart, and the result was a complete wipeout for Colorado, despite the chance of that huge let-down. Baylor got absolutely crushed, so the “spot”, like in this example, turned out to be a non-factor, with the other criteria weighing much more heavily.  One additional item of note:  “The spot” can definitely be off-set however by the amount of the spread factored in.  What good is figuring this important piece of information, if the sports book has already calculated that in to the total spread?  This of course, now brings us to “value”?  So…what exactly is value?  Well, each team can be figured in any kind of system, with a certain rating, like our well-known power rating. Every handicapper has his own value system. What I look for in this “value” criteria, is the relationship of the two teams involved, the strengths, the weakness, as well as a dive in to lot of statistics, plus adjustments for the success patterns of the two teams, and figuring in to the whole mix the “spot” and other informational factors.  This “value”, so to speak, can be then equated in comparison with a handicappers own personal assessment,  like a power rating, to what the spread might be by the lines-makers.

As far as contacts, and other information factors, let’s just leave it at that; that we dig deep for a result, and we try and bring you the best results possible. Having information and contacts in various locations surely helps one in arriving at an expected outcome, and this can help verify sometimes what we’re analyzing on paper.

Every game is figured by the experts of the casino houses, in reaction to market demand, and they don’t miss a thing and that….. You can bank on! However, sometimes, those reactions by the public are displaced. I look to find those inequities in the market place. When all four of the above criteria can be met positively, rest assured, we call for a top rating, although just not very common. Those are the games you have to pounce on!

EZ Sports Winners/Editor

www.ezsportswinners.com